Crime by the Numbers

These are the numbers. Pulled straight from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports. Not cherry-picked. Not spun into a headline. Just exported, added up, and laid out for anyone who cares enough to look.

Most of the time, when the media talks about crime, you’ll hear phrases like “crime is up” or “crime is down.” That’s lazy shorthand. Crime is not one number. It’s categories: homicide, aggravated assault, criminal sexual conduct, and more. And it’s geography: Minnesota looks different than New York, and Wisconsin looks different than Illinois. But the truth is there in the FBI’s own spreadsheets—if you’re willing to do the hard work of digging it out.

I did that work. Not because I enjoy staring at CSV files until my eyes burn, but because I’m sick and tired of being told a story that doesn’t line up with the facts. It’s too easy for a politician to grab one number, strip it of context, and hold it up as proof of their agenda. It’s just as easy for the media to take one spike, ignore the trend, and craft a headline that keeps people scared. Both sides know that most Americans don’t have the time or energy to pull the data themselves. That’s why I put it here.

What do these numbers show? First, homicide rates nationally are down compared to the 1990s and early 2000s. That’s an undeniable fact. Does that mean we live in some kind of crime-free utopia? Absolutely not. Because aggravated assault numbers remain stubbornly high. Criminal sexual conduct, though smaller in raw numbers, is no less alarming. These aren’t just statistics; they represent people—victims, families, lives changed forever.

Look at the state-by-state breakdown. Some states show steep declines. Others show spikes that are impossible to ignore. Illinois, for example, shows eye-popping changes in certain categories. Minnesota, where I live, looks different from Wisconsin next door. That’s the point: there is no one-size-fits-all picture of crime. The truth is layered, and the truth takes effort to see clearly.

The problem isn’t that the numbers don’t exist. The problem is that too few people are willing to look at them honestly.

Here’s why that matters. If you don’t look at the numbers yourself, you’ll be fed someone else’s version. That’s how narratives get built. That’s how people get convinced that crime is only a problem “over there” or that it’s nothing to worry about at all. But ask the people living in Chicago, Minneapolis, Detroit, or Los Angeles if crime feels like “nothing to worry about.” Ask the people in small-town America if they still lock their doors at night. The gap between lived reality and media spin is wide, and it’s getting wider.

That gap is why I teach what I teach. I don’t run these numbers to scare anybody. I run them to tell the truth. And the truth is this: crime doesn’t respect geography. It doesn’t respect politics. It doesn’t respect the front door of your home, the parking lot of your workplace, or the aisle of the grocery store. Crime happens everywhere, and it happens fast.

You can argue about policy, and you can debate causes. But at the end of the day, one question matters most: are you prepared to defend yourself and the people you love? Because no politician is coming to your rescue in that moment. No news anchor is going to step in when trouble finds you. It’s you. Your training. Your choices.

The numbers don’t lie. They don’t bend. They don’t spin. They’re just numbers. And they tell us that crime—whether trending up or down in a given category—never goes away. It’s part of the world we live in. The choice you have is whether you’ll be ready when it shows up at your door.

I’ll keep writing, and I’ll keep teaching. Next, I’ll break down Minnesota’s homicide numbers year-to-date—right down to the tools used. Because behind every statistic is a story, and those stories matter more than spin ever will.