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Cut Through the Spin: A 3-Question Fact-Check

Use this anytime you see a stat in the news or on social. It works for firearms, crime, health—anything.

  1. What’s actually included in that number?

    • Are they counting all categories together (suicide + homicide + accidents + police)?
    • Is it per year, per 100,000 people, or a lifetime risk?
    • Does “homicide” include justified self-defense or only criminal murders?

  2. Where did the number come from?

    • Primary sources (CDC, FBI/UCR/NIBRS, DOJ) are the baseline.
    • If the claim can’t point to a primary source, treat it as opinion until verified.

  3. What’s missing from the comparison?

    • Are they mixing categories (e.g., “gun deaths” that include suicides vs. “homicides” from other causes)?
    • Is a single city being compared to the entire nation?
    • Are other relevant categories (knives, blunt objects, drowning, vehicles, medical errors) being left out?

Quick Pocket Version

  • Inside the box? (What’s included/excluded?)
  • Source of truth? (CDC/FBI/DOJ or just a headline?)
  • Missing context? (Fair apples-to-apples?)
How to sanity-check a stat in under 5 minutes
  1. Identify the exact terms used (e.g., “gun deaths,” “firearm homicides”).
  2. Search the primary table (CDC WONDER or FBI UCR/NIBRS) for the same term and year.
  3. Compare the raw figure to the claim. If it doesn’t match, note what’s different (definitions, categories, time frame).

Instructor’s note: Facts live in the source tables. Framing lives in headlines. Teach yourself—and your students—to tell the difference.

John Davey — Owner/Instructor profile photo

— John Davey — Owner/Instructor